Three major investors committed to Anthropic's initial public offering have told The Wall Street Journal the AI startup's targeted $1.5 trillion valuation will likely need to fall toward $1 trillion, following a 6.3% plunge in the Nasdaq 100 that marked its worst session since April 2025. The company, which filed last month to list on Nasdaq under the ticker 'ANT,' had aimed to go public the week before Thanksgiving and raise up to $100 billion.
Key Takeaways
- Three major IPO investors told WSJ Anthropic's $1.5T valuation likely needs to fall toward $1T after Nasdaq 100 dropped 6.3%.
- Company filed to list under 'ANT' aiming to raise up to $100B the week before Thanksgiving; raise may shrink to ~$80B.
- Annualized revenue run rate topped $80B at end of October; cash position $146.6B as of Sept. 30.
- Democratic midterm gains fuel regulatory fears: data center moratoriums, AI liability bills, electricity cost shields proposed.
- Polymarket shows 71% odds of listing by year-end; Kalshi odds of confirmation before Dec. 1 fell to 59%.
Executive Intelligence Brief
Valuation Reset and Investor Demands
One investor suggested a valuation closer to $1 trillion, while another indicated the raise could shrink to around $80 billion. A third investor questioned whether Anthropic might delay the offering until market conditions improve. Executives and advisers are expected to meet in the coming days to discuss plans, according to the Journal.
The doubts follow a rout in AI stocks on Thursday, as investors weighed whether Democratic gains in the midterms could bring stricter oversight of data center construction. The S&P 500 closed down 4.4% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 fell 6.3%, while the Philadelphia semiconductor index slid 12.3% and Nvidia dropped 9.2%. Stocks partly recovered Friday morning, with the Nasdaq Composite up 1.4% and Nvidia gaining 3.4% as of 11:21 a.m. ET.
Regulatory Overhang and Political Risk
Democrats are planning bills to shield consumers from rising electricity costs tied to data centers, require independent testing of advanced AI systems, and clarify when AI companies can be held liable for harm, Reuters reported. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has called for a 'national data center moratorium,' while Texas governor-elect Gina Hinojosa has pledged to pause data center approvals in a state that hosts more than a quarter of planned U.S. data center capacity.
Any legislation would likely face steep odds while Trump remains in the White House, but the political signaling has injected fresh uncertainty into AI infrastructure valuations. A delay to Anthropic's IPO is now an 'escalating risk' in the current environment, technology analyst Richard Windsor told The Telegraph.
Fundamentals and Market Timing
Some investors want to see Anthropic's October results before assuming a valuation cut. The company's annualized revenue run rate topped $80 billion at the end of October, and it held $146.6 billion in cash as of September 30, according to the Journal. The valuation now in question is already well below earlier expectations; in September, a leaked draft filing showed Anthropic was seeking a valuation of around $2 trillion.
Prediction Markets Shift Timing Expectations
Traders have pushed back their expectations. On Polymarket, the odds that Anthropic lists by November 20 stood at 43% on Friday, while the chance of a listing by the end of the year was 71%. On Kalshi, where traders bet on when Anthropic will officially confirm its IPO, the odds of that happening before December 1 fell 15 points to 59%, while the chance before January 1 slipped to 68%. On Decrypt Predict, traders also put the odds of an Anthropic IPO before 2027 at 71%.
Forward Outlook and Key Decisions
Anthropic's executive meetings in the coming days will determine whether the IPO proceeds at a reduced valuation, raises less capital, or is postponed. The trajectory of the Nasdaq 100 and semiconductor indices, alongside any concrete legislative movement on data center regulation, will shape the window for what would be one of the largest technology listings in history.
